Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Moment of Truth - This time is no different

Conditions are in place across various indicators for a drop.  It does not matter where I look, the direction points down for me.
  • Technical Stochastic indicators such as the RSI are demonstrating huge divergences on multiple longer term timeframes.  Eventually this situation resolves itself, in this case, downard.
  • We have reached major fibonacci retraces on time and price that signify that this rally has met all anticipated targets and we are due to begin Wave C.
  • On a positive note, the market has now pierced a major trendline that has defined this market and it will be critical to see if this is a breakout or a fakeout.
  • New Highs have not confirmed this recent rally.  The number of new highs is significantly lower than the prior high.
  • Volume is not confirming the rally across a variety of time frames, particularly on the daily.
  • The advance decline line is showing a large divergence
  • We are wedging yet again which has been a decent indicator
 Fundamentally, the news disappointed again this morning with the miss on Industrial Production.

I am anticipating a possible final 5th wave surge higher, but 5th waves can truncate as well.  Timing wise, this could be coinciding with a disappointing Thanksgiving sales season.  We'll see how the spin masters spin it.

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