Thursday, November 5, 2009

Market at Price, Time & Moving Average Resistances, But Pattern Not Yet There

Markets are now in an interesting setup.  We are approaching the 38% time retrace on the move down at the same time that unemployment is due.  Further, the market's progress today was halted at the 50% retrace.

Fundamentally a significant amount of optimistic expectations about the jobs report are embedded in the market.  Any disappointment would see a selloff.  On the other hand, given the optimistic move the past few days, a better than expected number would see a small rally and a sell the news type of event. 

This is not a projection, I don't make short term daily market forecasts, leave that to the traders.

But this does offer a juicy setup.  We're at an 50% retrace on the up move, a 38% time retrace, and also butting up the under side of the uptrend line.

Further, we are approaching the 20 day moving average.   And if the market manages to get past all this resistance, we have the mother of all trend lines sitting in the 1080s that repelled the market recently.

Edit: 4pm: Pattern is now nearing completion and we are in the last stages of the rally in my opinion.


  1. Great work. Keep it up, and I will visit often.
    I added short yesterday(too early), and again today.
    However, I think the risk for me is, what if tomorrow there is another rally?

    I did notice market changed recently, and I felt it's a top. I noticed ag stocks (POT, MOS, etc) didn't go to new highs, and SRS did really well recently considering we're close to new high. Tech maybe one of the strongest sectors, but I think with AAPL, AMZN hitting all time high, it should correct, to say the least.

    I saw some old xtrenders post on different blogs now, but still value their opinions, I still follow Atilla, MACT, Kemal, KingShort. Hope more people will visit your site and share ideas here.

  2. Hey ST,

    I took profits yesterday and was prepared for the move up, just based on wave count

    my experience has taught me the key to making money is money management, the best traders make money with a 1/3rd win rate

    I never go all in anymore, made those mistakes will not enter levels that dont let me sleep at night

    another key for me is patience

    I'm not a day trader, usually trade the 20min and 60 m charts and enter when the odds favor

    Yes, I've got my eye on SRS as well, Financials were underperformers again today

    Is Kingshort back? I haven't seen a post from him in ages

    Too bad Atilla went commercial, my hope is we can build a community of good traders and start a live chat room