EW normally requires Wave 5 to be 100% of the time spent in Wave 1. That requirement was satisfied to the T in the chart below. No idea if the count is right but it does offer hope to us bears. If this is indeed the count, this may be the confirmation that Wave C is finally complete. And if that is true, time for the fireworks to begin on Wave 3 down.
As an aside, added small position at 1105 earlier today.
Showing posts with label Technical Commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Commentary. Show all posts
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Market at Price, Time & Moving Average Resistances, But Pattern Not Yet There
Markets are now in an interesting setup. We are approaching the 38% time retrace on the move down at the same time that unemployment is due. Further, the market's progress today was halted at the 50% retrace.
Fundamentally a significant amount of optimistic expectations about the jobs report are embedded in the market. Any disappointment would see a selloff. On the other hand, given the optimistic move the past few days, a better than expected number would see a small rally and a sell the news type of event.
This is not a projection, I don't make short term daily market forecasts, leave that to the traders.
But this does offer a juicy setup. We're at an 50% retrace on the up move, a 38% time retrace, and also butting up the under side of the uptrend line.
Further, we are approaching the 20 day moving average. And if the market manages to get past all this resistance, we have the mother of all trend lines sitting in the 1080s that repelled the market recently.
Edit: 4pm: Pattern is now nearing completion and we are in the last stages of the rally in my opinion.
Fundamentally a significant amount of optimistic expectations about the jobs report are embedded in the market. Any disappointment would see a selloff. On the other hand, given the optimistic move the past few days, a better than expected number would see a small rally and a sell the news type of event.
This is not a projection, I don't make short term daily market forecasts, leave that to the traders.
But this does offer a juicy setup. We're at an 50% retrace on the up move, a 38% time retrace, and also butting up the under side of the uptrend line.
Further, we are approaching the 20 day moving average. And if the market manages to get past all this resistance, we have the mother of all trend lines sitting in the 1080s that repelled the market recently.
Edit: 4pm: Pattern is now nearing completion and we are in the last stages of the rally in my opinion.
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