Traxis Partners - Getting It Wrong.. Consistently - Perfect Contrary Indicators

In the summer of 2008, many of you may not remember this, Cyrille Moulle Bertaux of Traxis Partners came out with a WSJ article telling us that housing had bottomed and he had charts and data and analyses that convinced Traxis that the bottom in housing and the market was near.

Barton Biggs was consistently bullish through S&P 880 and the market bottomed at 666. 

Then in May of this year, we had Barton Biggs on Bloomberg when the S&P was around 1180 telling us that the economic recovery was strong and he saw another 15% upside in the markets.

As more of these bull market gurus fall, all it does is convince me that the entire pay structure for fund managers and Wall Street is skewed and this will be corrected before all is said and done.

Less than 1% of these guys has any skill.  The overwhelming majority are idiots and clueless about the markets and should not be managing money.

The only bigger idiots are the institutions that buy into their pitches and invest with them.

Barton made his name with the bull market of the 80s.  What is it that they say, do not confuse a bull market with brains?

Interestingly, Charles Reinhardt of Morgan Stanley is another uber bull equity whore that was predicting a multi year bull market at precisely the top on the S&P 500 in May.

Wall Street has truly become a wasteland and is being exposed for what it is - a bunch of talent less over paid back stabbers that will do anything to make a buck.

You would do well to ignore ALL advice you receive from investment companies, whether in the U.S. or India.

Investment in stocks NOT a must for a complete and balanced portfolio

The Economic Times reports today

Investment in stocks must for a complete and balanced portfolio
'If you really want your money to grow - stocks is the only way to go'- Haven't you heard this umpteen times. Well, it holds true every time.

As compared to fixed deposits, investments in equity will pay 26.5 per cent higher returns in 5 years. Even for a longer term, investment in stocks pay higher returns even in comparison to real estate and gold. 

Investments in equity WILL? pay 26.5% higher returns in 5 years? Well there you have it... Economic Times India writers know exactly what equity market returns will be in 5 years.  And if they know what equities are going to do, why are they writing newspaper articles, they should be hedge fund managers.

They trot out Infosys and Tata Steels.  Tata Steels share price performance is shown above.  What if you were unfortunate enough to have bought tin 2006 and sold in fear in 2009? You would have a significant loss!

That is the issue that unsuspecting investors in India are learning for themselves.  Stop listening to the mutual fund industry marketing buzz and start being wise investors.

There is a time to buy equities and when that time comes, I will invest agressively.  Today is not that time.
Success in the markets requires patience and waiting for the fat pitch.  Investors entering the market today are likely going to be disappointed as opposed to investing in secure investments.

Core Principles

You Cannot Borrow Yourself Out Of A Debt Crisis
 You cannot borrow your way out of a debt crisis. Yes, you may be able to destroy the value of the currency by being more reckless than a drunken sailor, but you cannot create prosperity by borrowing from Dick to pay Harry and then borrowing from Jane to pay Dick, etc. We are creating another tower of debt in the public sector to replace the collapsing tower of debt in the private sector.

No Fiat Money System Has Ever Survived Temptation
In the history of fiat or government-produced paper money, no fiat money in history has ever survived, all are now museum pieces. The reason is that fiat money is produced (without the discipline of gold) in any quantities a government desires. When an economy slows (as now) or when a nation goes to war (which is always wildly expensive, as now) the temptation to print the needed "wealth" becomes overwhelming.

Eventually, the world distrusts man-made "money." In the end, each new issue of fiat money dies. The fate of the US dollar will be no different. Which is the real reason why we hold gold for the long-term.